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The college football world was expecting a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, providing a lot of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don't appear to believe so. At least in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market as well. Remember that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked to a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really reputable gamer."
Although respected money has actually can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with several bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has actually sneaked up somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be amazed if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, but I currently invite any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
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So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before respected money pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A a little greater bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp wagerers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has actually been to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen significant buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line turn? Simply put, the wagering action.
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Even though Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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